More than half of smartphones shipped globally in 2028 are expected to be GenAI-enabled, as use cases expand and availability spreads across various price segments, according to a new report.
The global smartphone market has reached maturity, with shipments anticipated to remain stable in the coming years. However, growth is expected to be driven by emerging markets such as India, the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and Southeast Asia.
“We expect smartphone revenues to keep growing through 2028 as the premiumisation trend continues across markets. New technologies like GenAI and foldables will likely drive average selling price (ASP) growth as adoption rates rise,” said Tarun Pathak, Director at Counterpoint Research.
Although smartphone shipments have seen strong year-over-year (YoY) growth recently, this is primarily due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and consumer demand. Despite slowed shipment growth in recent quarters, global smartphone revenue grew by 10% YoY in Q3 2024, reaching record-high levels for a third quarter.
Apple led the market in smartphone revenues, capturing a 43% share and reporting its highest-ever Q3 revenues, shipments, and ASPs. The earlier launch of the iPhone 16 series, an increased focus on Pro models, and continued expansion into non-core markets contributed to Apple’s success in Q3, according to Research Director Jeff Fieldhack.
With most major brands seeing strong revenue growth, the $400+ segment gained a 2% YoY share in Q3 2024. The ongoing premiumisation trend across regions has pushed OEMs to reconsider their premium portfolios and device financing strategies.
The report predicts that the premiumisation trend will continue, with global smartphone ASPs expected to rise at a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028.
