2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Phalodi’s Betting Market Predicts NDA Falling Short of Two-Thirds Majority

Phalodi, a hub for election-related betting nestled in Rajasthan’s Jodhpur district, is witnessing a shift in wagers towards the BJP-led government.

Presently, the wagers speculate the BJP securing 303 seats, akin to its 2019 performance, down from the earlier prediction of 330-335 seats. Meanwhile, the NDA is anticipated to clinch 340-350 seats, falling shy of a two-thirds majority. The Congress party is forecasted to notch approximately 50-51 seats.

This adjustment is attributed to negotiations within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), subdued voter turnout, and to some extent, the Supreme Court’s verdict on electoral bonds.

Currently, the betting market offers a 1:1 rate for BJP securing 300-303 seats, signifying a balanced risk-reward ratio. However, for 320 seats, the rate escalates to 2.25, indicating heightened risk. Conversely, bets substantially deviating from standard rates find fewer takers in this electoral betting arena.

For Congress, the rate stands at 1:1 for 50-51 seats, but shifts to 1:3 for 60-61 seats.

Two primary factors are impeding BJP’s momentum this time. Firstly, the voter turnout in the initial rounds for 190 seats fell below expectations, with a marginal uptick post the Election Commission’s revision. It was anticipated that a higher turnout would favor the ruling alliance, but the prevailing heatwave dissuaded voter participation.

Furthermore, the Supreme Court’s ruling on electoral bonds has tarnished the ruling party’s image, as per sources in the Phalodi betting market.

Current indications suggest BJP might concede some seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh but make gains in Uttar Pradesh.

In the 2019 general elections, the BJP-led alliance outperformed the satta market predictions, buoyed by a surge in support following its response to the Pulwama attack. However, this time around, achieving Prime Minister Modi’s rallying cry of “abaki baar 400 paar” (crossing 400 seats) seems improbable.

Notably, a less-than-two-thirds majority for the NDA could ripple across other markets, including equities, potentially impacting major BJP-led government reforms.

If these forecasts hold true, it signifies a deviation from Prime Minister Modi’s electoral aspirations.

Despite its modest stature and literacy rates, Phalodi boasts the largest illegal market where enthusiasts from across the nation engage in election and cricket match gambling, amidst its salt production and scorching temperatures.

About Seema Vishwas

An anchor with CNBC TV18 for almost 4 years. Also co-anchors prime-time market shows like Power Breakfast, Traders only, Markets Mid-day and NSE Closing Bell.

View all posts by Seema Vishwas →